Peramalan Inflasi di Indonesia Pasca Pemilu 2024 dengan Metode Time Series Double Exponential Smoothing

Authors

  • Khoirul Anwar ITB Yadika Pasuruan
  • Rivaldo Kurniawan Iryanto STIE Dharmaputra Semarang
  • Rifqah Harahap STIE IBMI Medan
  • Asmah Sinuraya Universitas Tama Jagakarsa image/svg+xml
  • Musran Munizu Universitas Hasanudin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35870/emt.v9i1.3503

Keywords:

Inflation, Forecasting, Double Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services in a certain period whose growth is sought to remain low and stable for the sake of society's welfare. The aim of this research is to predict or predict the rate of inflation which will contribute to Indonesia economic uncertainty after the 2024 General Election. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the Bank Indonesia website. This research uses Indonesian monthly inflation data from 2015 to 2024. The data is analyzed using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. The results of the analysis showed that descriptive analysis of Indonesian inflation from 2015 fluctuated and continued to decline until in 2021 it reached 1.67% and increased in 2022 reaching 5.51% and continued to decline in the following year. Forecasting results using the Double Exponential Smoothing method continue to decline for December 2024 to April 2025 with a MAD error value of 0.3202. Inflation forecasting in Indonesia is expected to support interested parties in making policies to maintain country stability and control economic uncertainty after the election.

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Author Biographies

  • Khoirul Anwar, ITB Yadika Pasuruan,

    Program Studi Hukum dan Bisnis, ITB Yadika Pasuruan, Kabupaten Pasuruan, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Indonesia.

  • Rivaldo Kurniawan Iryanto, STIE Dharmaputra Semarang,

    Program Studi Akuntansi, STIE Dharmaputra Semarang, Kota Semarang, Provinsi Jawa Tengah, Indonesia.

  • Rifqah Harahap, STIE IBMI Medan,

    Program Studi Manajemen, STIE IBMI Medan, Kota Medan, Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia.

  • Asmah Sinuraya, Universitas Tama Jagakarsa

    Program Studi Manajemen, Universitas Tama Jagakarsa, Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta, Indonesia.

  • Musran Munizu, Universitas Hasanudin,

    Program Studi Manajemen, Universitas Hasanudin, Kota Makassar, Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia.

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Published

2025-01-01

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025): JANUARY 2025

Section

Articles

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How to Cite

Anwar, K., Iryanto, R. K., Harahap, R., Sinuraya, A., & Munizu, M. (2025). Peramalan Inflasi di Indonesia Pasca Pemilu 2024 dengan Metode Time Series Double Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal EMT KITA, 9(1), 144-152. https://doi.org/10.35870/emt.v9i1.3503

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