Analisis Forecasting Pengisian Tabung Gas Menggunakan Metode Time Series Pada Stasiun Pengisian dan Pengangkutan Bulk Elpiji (SPPBE) PT. Sinar Energi Sulawesi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35870/jemsi.v11i5.5018Keywords:
Distribution, Exponential Smoothing, ForecastingAbstract
This study aims to analyze the gas cylinder refilling needs at SPPBE PT. Sinar Energi Sulawesi using the time series forecasting method of Exponential Smoothing. The background of this research is the importance of accurate demand estimation to support efficient and timely LPG distribution. The data used were historical refilling records from 2022 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using R Studio to develop a predictive model based on seasonal patterns and historical trends. The forecasting results predicted refill volumes of 552.27 units (June), 531.57 units (July), and 573.58 units (August) in 2025. The model showed high accuracy with MAD of 13.31, MSE of 229.09, and MAPE of 2.34%. The visualization of forecasting results clearly illustrated seasonal fluctuations and prediction confidence intervals. These findings contribute significantly to operational efficiency and corporate decision-making. Therefore, the Exponential Smoothing method can be relied upon as a strategic tool in data-driven energy distribution planning. This study also recommends regular updates of historical data to maintain forecast accuracy.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Muh. Niswar, Muh. Tamrin, Haslindah Haslindah, Pratiwi Ramlan
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