Bebas-Aktif and Pragmatic Assertiveness: Continuity and Change in Indonesia’s Foreign Policy under Prabowo Subianto
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35870/ljit.v4i2.8719Keywords:
Indonesia; Prabowo Subianto; foreign policy analysis; strategic autonomy; middle power; hedging; presidential diplomacy; ASEAN; BRICSAbstract
This article examines whether Indonesian foreign policy under President Prabowo Subianto (October 2024–August 2026) represents a doctrinal departure from bebas-aktif or a programmatic reconfiguration of strategic autonomy. It develops the Doctrinal Continuity–Instrumental Reconfiguration (DCIR) model, integrating foreign-policy-change theory, role theory, leader-centered Foreign Policy Analysis, and hedging. Using a qualitative longitudinal case-study design, the analysis combines structured comparison of the Jokowi–China maritime joint statement and the ORRUDA Indonesia–Russia naval exercise, while testing policy consistency across Myanmar, Palestine, the South China Sea, and AUKUS. The findings indicate strong doctrinal continuity in non-alignment, strategic autonomy, anti-colonial solidarity, bridge-building, and commitment to an inclusive regional order, alongside substantial programmatic change through intensified presidential diplomacy, defence and defence-industrial cooperation, institutional diversification, and more explicit interest-based bargaining. The article conceptualizes this pattern as pragmatic assertiveness: a more security-conscious and materially oriented enactment of bebas-aktif rather than a new foreign-policy doctrine. However, ambiguous maritime signaling and tensions between bilateral activism and ASEAN-centered commitments generate role strain. The study demonstrates how non-aligned middle powers can substantially adapt foreign-policy instruments while preserving their underlying international orientation.
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