Paradoks Pertumbuhan Inklusif: Menguji Peran Sektor Perdagangan Sebagai Katup Pengaman (Safety Valve) Ekonomi Kota Palu
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35870/ljit.v4i2.8404Keywords:
Economic Resilience; Trade Sector; Safety Valve; HAC Newey-West; Spatial Inequality.Abstract
Massive nickel downstreaming in Central Sulawesi has created an asymmetric spatial bias: while mining-peripheral regions grow exponentially, Palu City, acting as the urban logistics hub, paradoxically experiences decelerating aggregate economic growth and widening inequality. This study examines the resilience of the wholesale and retail trade sectors in Palu City against simultaneous macroeconomic shocks of inflation, income inequality (Gini Ratio), and open unemployment (TPT). A quantitative explanatory design with time series data (2011–2025) was employed, disaggregated into quarterly data (n = 60) using the Quadratic Match Average technique. Model estimation (levels) was conducted with Robust Standard Errors corrected through the Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) approach. Results demonstrate that macroeconomic pressures collectively exert a significant impact on the trade sector (Wald F-statistic = 4.644663; p-value = 0.0057), with an explanatory power of 37.06%. Partially, inflation and unemployment have no significant effect, confirming the demand inelasticity of basic commodities and the structural autonomy of the informal labor market. The primary theoretical novelty lies in the conceptualization of the Regional-Spatial Safety Valve. Empirical estimation reveals that widening income inequality paradoxically exerts a positive and highly significant effect on trade sector growth (coefficient = 62.99443; p-value = 0.0143). Labor exclusion from the capital-intensive formal sector triggers a defensive transition into retail trade activities within Palu City, acting as a regional buffer zone that absorbs inequality shocks in real-time. This study urges the local government to reorient urban policy toward voluntary formalization and inclusive traditional market development.
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