Fenomena Jobless Growth dan Spillover Effect Pengangguran Terbuka di Jawa Tengah: Pendekatan Spatial Durbin Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35870/jemsi.v12i5.7052Keywords:
Jobless Growth, Open Unemployment, Spatial Durbin Model, Spillover Effect, Central JavaAbstract
Open unemployment and the jobless growth phenomenon represent persistent structural challenges in Central Java Province, where economic growth is often not accompanied by proportional job creation. This research aimed to analyze the jobless growth phenomenon and the spatial spillover effect on the Open Unemployment Rate in Central Java. Using panel data from 35 regencies/cities during the 2018-2023 period, this study applied the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) Fixed Effect approach with Robust Standard Error estimation. The results proved the existence of a significant spatial dependency (ρ = 0.2543), indicating that the unemployment rate in one region spreads and influences employment conditions in neighboring areas. Empirically, improving human resource quality (Mean Years of Schooling) proved effective in reducing unemployment, whereas the escalation of the Minimum Wage triggered an increase in unemployment due to company operational cost rationalization. The expansion of Industry and MSME units was also found to be inelastic in absorbing labor. These findings empirically validate the jobless growth anomaly, thereby implying the need for cross-regional unemployment alleviation policy synergy and investment reorientation towards labor-intensive sectors.
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