Pengaruh Penerimaan Pajak dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35870/jemensri.v9i1.3049Keywords:
Economic Growth, Tax Revenues, Inflation, Multiple Linear Regression, Autoregressive Distributed LagAbstract
The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between tax revenues and inflation on economic growth. Using annual time series data from the 2000-2019 period. The research method used is multiple linear regression and autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL). The research results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and tax revenues and inflation. Using a multiple linear regression analysis model states that tax revenues and inflation have a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, using autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) analysis states that tax revenues have an insignificant negative effect in the long term, while in the short term tax revenues have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Inflation has an insignificant negative effect on economic growth in the long term, but in the short term inflation has a significant negative effect on economic growth. This finding has the implication that efforts to increase economic growth can be made by keeping taxes and inflation levels at a stable level.
Downloads
References
Adefolake, A. O., & Omodero, C. O. (2022). Tax revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. Cogent Business & Management, 9(1), 2115282. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2022.2115282.
Amri, K., Masbar, R., Nazaruddin, B. S., & Aimon, H. (2023). Does tax effort moderate the effect of government expenditure on regional economic growth? A dynamic panel data evidence from Indonesia. Ekonomika, 102(2), 6-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2023.102.2.1.
Amri, K., Nazamuddin, B. S., Masbar, R., & Aimon, H. (2019). Is there a causality relationship between local tax revenue and regional economic growth? A panel data evidence from Indonesia. Regional Science Inquiry, 11(1), 73-84.
Baharumshah, A. Z., Slesman, L., & Wohar, M. E. (2016). Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence. Economic Systems, 40(4), 638-657. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.02.009
Barati, M., & Fariditavana, H. (2018). Asymmetric effect of income on the US healthcare expenditure: Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Empirical Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1604-7
Chen, Z., Wang, Z., & Jiang, H. (2019). Analyzing the heterogeneous impacts of high-speed rail entry on air travel in China: A hierarchical panel regression approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 129, 86-96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.07.004.
Cindy, K., & Syarif, H. L. (2023). Analisis penerimaan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia pada tahun 2017 - 2021. SEIKO: Journal of Management & Business, 6(2), 565-569.
Daniel, P. A. (2018). Analisis pengaruh inflasi terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di Kota Jambi. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 2(1), 131-136.
de Almeida, J. L., & de Mendonça, H. F. (2019). The effect of infrastructure and taxation on economic growth: new empirical assessment. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(5), 1065-1082. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-03-2018-0105.
Dladla, K., & Khobai, H. (2018). The impact of taxation on economic growth in South Africa.
Durlauf, S., & Blume, L. (Eds.). (2016). Macroeconometrics and time series analysis. Springer.
Erbaykal, E., & Okuyan, H. A. (2008). Does inflation depress economic growth? Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Finance End Economics, 13(17).
Gnangnon, S. K. (2022). Tax revenue instability and tax revenue in developed and developing countries. Applied Economic Analysis, 30(88), 18-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-09-2020-0133.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2013). Dasar-dasar ekonometrika. In Basic Econometrics (pp. 235-255). Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Gwaison, P. D., Maimako, L. N., & Mwolchet, P. S. (2021). Capital market and economic growth in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing Approach. International Journal of Finance Research, 1(2), 74–92. https://doi.org/10.47747/financeinvestmentderivative.v1i2.113.
Hakim, A. T., Karia, A. A., David, J., Ginsad, R., Lokman, N., & Zolkafli, S. (2022). Impact of direct and indirect taxes on economic development: A comparison between developed and developing countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2141423.
Hanson, A. (2021). Taxes and economic development: An update on the state of the economics literature. Economic Development Quarterly. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/08912424211022832.
Hartati, N. (2020). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 2010–2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Pelita Bangsa, 5(1), 92-119.
Indriyani, S. (2016). Analisis pengaruh inflasi dan suku bunga terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 2005–2015. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis Krisnadwipayana, 4(2).
Iyke, B. N., & Ho, S. Y. (2020). The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53(1), 195-217. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-019-09252.
Jayathileke, P. M., Bathula., & Rathnayaka, M. K. T. (2013). Testing the link between inflation and economic growth: Evidence from Asia. China. Wuhan University of Technology, 87–92. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/ME.2013.42011.
Jones, L. E., & Manuelli, R. E. (1995). Growth and the effects of inflation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(8), 1405–1428. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(94)00835-6.
Jotopurnomo, C., & Mangoting, Y. (2013). Pengaruh kesadaran wajib pajak, kualitas pelayanan fiskus, sanksi perpajakan, lingkungan wajib pajak berada terhadap kepatuhan wajib pajak orang pribadi di Surabaya. Tax & Accounting Review, 1(1), 49.
Kunkuaboor, Y. C., Adamu, M., Sommik, D. M., & Abdul, S. F. (2021). The effect of inflation on economic growth in Ghana, 1995-2019: Post democratic analysis. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews.
Kurniasari, D. R. (2011). Analisis Pengaruh Investasi, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Pembanguna N Nasional “Veteran, 10, 165-171.
Lee, Y., & Gordon, R. H. (2005). Tax structure and economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 89(5), 1027–1043. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2004.07.002.
López, V. A., & Mignon, V. (2011). On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter? Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(3), 455–464. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.02.003.
Mandeya, S. M. T., & Ho, S.-Y. (2021). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and the economic growth nexus: An impact study of South Africa. MethodsX, 8, 101501. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2021.101501.
Mdanat, M. F., Shotar, M., Samawi, G., Mulot, J., Arabiyat, T. S., & Alzyadat, M. A. (2018). Tax structure and economic growth in Jordan, 1980-2015. EuroMed Journal of Business, 13(1), 102-127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/EMJB-11-2016-0030.
Moutinho, V., & Madaleno, M. (2020). Economic growth assessment through an ARDL approach: The case of African OPEC countries. Energy Reports, 6, 305–311. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.253.
Mubarik, A. (2005). Inflation and growth. An estimate of the threshold level of inflation in Pakistan. SBP-Research Bulletin, 1(1), 35-43.
Muchdie, S. M. (2016). Inflasi, pengangguran dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara islam. Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 7.
Mukolu, M. O., & Ogodor, B. (2021). The effect of value added tax on economic growth of Nigeria. [Unpublished master's thesis].
Musakwa, M., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). The impact of remittance inflows on poverty in Botswana: An ARDL approach. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1-13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0175.
Nadirin, M. (2017). Hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 1994-2013. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB, 5(2).
Nurfajriyati, I., Walewangko, E. N., & Siwu, Dj. H. F. (2021). Analisis pengaruh penerimaan pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di kota Tidore kepulauan dan kota Ternate (2010-2019). Jurnal EMBA, 9(3), 141-150.
Orbaningsih, D., & Sujianto, A. E. (2022). The impact of tax revenue on economic growth: Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 6(5). DOI: https://doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2022.6538.
Putong, I. (2013). Pengantar ekonomi mikro dan makro. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.
Rahardjo, A. (2013). Teori-teori pembangunan ekonomi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan wilayah. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu.
Ridzuan, A. R., Saad, R. M., Subramaniam, G., Amin, S. M., & Borhan, H. (2019). The link between financial sector development and income distribution: Evidence from Singapore. International Journal of Business and Society, 20(2), 627–640.
Rini, D. A. M., & Yulistiyono, H. (2021). Pengeluaran pemerintah, akumulasi modal, pajak dan ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Seminar Nasional Manajemen, Ekonomi dan Akuntansi, 6(1), 1098–1108.
Salim, A., Fadilla, F., & Purnamasari, A. (2021). Pengaruh inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Ekonomica Sharia: Jurnal Pemikiran dan Pengembangan Ekonomi Syariah, 7(1), 17-28.
Saragih, A. H. (2018). Pengaruh penerimaan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. SIKAP, 3(1), 17-27.
Septiatin, A. A., Mawardi, M. M., & Rizki, M. A. K. (2016). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. I-Economics: A Research Journal on Islamic Economics, 2(1), 50-65.
Sihaloho, E. D. (2020). Analisis pengaruh permintaan pajak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia: Pendekatan vector autoregressive. Forum Ekonomi, 22(2), 202-209.
Sumaryani, W. N. (2019). Pengaruh realisasi penerimaan pajak bagi pertumbuhan perekonomian negara Indonesia. Jurnal Litbang Sukowati, 3(1), 16-27.
Takumah, W. (2014). Tax revenue and economic growth in Ghana: A cointegration approach. MPRA Paper.
Thuy, T. H., Xuan, H. T., & Nguyen, Q. K. (2023). Tax revenue-economic growth relationship and the role of trade openness in developing countries. Cogent Business & Management, 10(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2023.2213959.
Tosun, M. S., & Abizadeh, S. (2005). Economic growth and tax components: An analysis of tax changes in OECD. Applied Economics, 37(19), 2251–2263. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500293813.
Tursoy, T. (2019). The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey: Empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration. Financial Innovation, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0124-6
Umaru, A., & Zubairu, J. (2012). The effect of inflation on the growth and development of the Nigerian economy: An empirical analysis. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10), 187-188.
Uyanik, G. K., & Guler, N. (2013). A study on multiple linear regression analysis. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 106, 234-240.
Wolters, J., & Hassler, U. (2006). Unit root testing. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, 90(1), 43–58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-006-0220-6.
Yi, F., & Suyono, E. (2014). The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth of Hebei province based on the tax multiplier effect. Global Economy and Finance Journal, 7(2), 1-18.
Zameer, H., Yasmeen, H., Zafar, M. W., Waheed, A., & Sinha, A. (2020). Analyzing the association between innovation, economic growth, and environment: divulging the importance of FDI and trade openness in India. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 29539-29553. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09112.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Copyright Retention and Open Access License
Authors retain copyright of their work and grant the journal non-exclusive right of first publication under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
This license allows unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2. Rights Granted Under CC BY 4.0
Under this license, readers are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, including commercial use
- No additional restrictions — the licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as license terms are followed
3. Attribution Requirements
All uses must include:
- Proper citation of the original work
- Link to the Creative Commons license
- Indication if changes were made to the original work
- No suggestion that the licensor endorses the user or their use
4. Additional Distribution Rights
Authors may:
- Deposit the published version in institutional repositories
- Share through academic social networks
- Include in books, monographs, or other publications
- Post on personal or institutional websites
Requirement: All additional distributions must maintain the CC BY 4.0 license and proper attribution.
5. Self-Archiving and Pre-Print Sharing
Authors are encouraged to:
- Share pre-prints and post-prints online
- Deposit in subject-specific repositories (e.g., arXiv, bioRxiv)
- Engage in scholarly communication throughout the publication process
6. Open Access Commitment
This journal provides immediate open access to all content, supporting the global exchange of knowledge without financial, legal, or technical barriers.